The chase

Rogue Assassin
VEN-189*/166 · showcase
$3229.71
≈1 in 191 boxes

Master of Shadows
VEN-191*/166 · showcase
$1352.67
≈1 in 191 boxes

Defender of Tomorrow
VEN-194*/166 · showcase
$1199.92
≈1 in 191 boxes

Heart of the Tempest
VEN-197*/166 · showcase
$1152.22
≈1 in 191 boxes

Soul's Reflection
VEN-195*/166 · showcase
$1113.64
≈1 in 191 boxes

Curator of the Sands
VEN-192*/166 · showcase
$593.12
≈1 in 191 boxes

Eye of Twilight
VEN-193*/166 · showcase
$529.63
≈1 in 191 boxes

Rogue Assassin
VEN-189/166 · showcase
$490.88
≈1 in 191 boxes

Matriarch of War
VEN-196*/166 · showcase
$482.56
≈1 in 191 boxes

Butcher of the Sands
VEN-190*/166 · showcase
$408.43
≈1 in 191 boxes

Heart of the Tempest
VEN-197/166 · showcase
$211.45
≈1 in 191 boxes

Irelia, Fervent
VEN-174/166 · showcase
$209.18 · 21 decks
≈1 in 191 boxes
Set anatomy
Sticker EV
$128
Every card at market price. The number everyone quotes — and nobody receives.
After fees and bulk
$82
Selling fees applied per card, and anything under $1.86 valued as bulk, because listing it loses money.
The median box
$17
Half of boxes do worse than this. The average is dragged up by chases almost nobody opens.
What 8,000 simulated boxes returned
9% of boxes beat their $146 price
Played staples from this set
red = boxes that lost money · ▌ box price · clipped at the 98th percentile
p10 $7 · p25 $10 · median $17 · p75 $50 · p90 $130
luckiest $2985 · unluckiest $3 · skew 7.2 (a long right tail: the average is held up by boxes almost nobody opens)
Buy a sealed case (12 boxes) and the per-box median rises to $56 and the odds of clearing $146 a box go from 9% to 15%. Volume does not change the average — it just stops one box deciding your outcome.
Who this box is for
Playable is the floor you can reliably realise; collectible is the ceiling you mostly do not hit. A set leaning hard collectible pays out rarely and hugely.
| Tier | In set | Per box | Specific card | Avg | Median | Spread (sd) | Share of EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 55 | 168 | 1 in 1.0 boxes | $0.07 | $0.06 | ± $0.04 | 9.4% |
| Uncommon | 46 | 72 | 1 in 1.3 boxes | $0.09 | $0.08 | ± $0.04 | 4.9% |
| Rare | 45 | 42 | 1 in 2 boxes | $0.19 | $0.17 | ± $0.08 | 6.2% |
| Epic | 27 | 6 | 1 in 5 boxes | $2.76 | $0.67 | ± $7.71 | 13.0% |
| Alt art | 6 | 2 | 1 in 3 boxes | $6.02 | $6.01 | ± $1.32 | 9.4% |
| Secret / SP | 64 | 0.33 | 1 in 191 boxes | $218.36 | $74.58 | ± $486.36 | 57.1% |
Of 290 singles in a box, about 3 are worth listing on their own. The other 287 are bulk: fees exceed their price.
Structure: 24 packs × 14 cards (7C/3U/2 rare-slot); epic replaces a rare ~1-in-4 packs, alt art ~1-in-12, secrets/SP ~1-in-72. Community-observed rates (cardgamer, TechRaptor, Harlequins). Riot publishes no official collation. A red median marks a tier whose average is more than double it — there, the average describes a card you will probably not pull. Fees follow TCGplayer’s published schedule and assume single-card sales; moving cards as one lot beats this. The guaranteed foil and the room card are not modelled, so these figures read low.
Does price follow scarcity?
Expected copies of one given printing per box — the real measure of how hard a specific card is to pull, rather than the rarity printed on it. Scarcest first, so prices should fall going down.
Flagged rows break the ladder: something harder to pull trades below something easier. In a game people actually play, that is demand for playability outrunning demand for rarity.

Budget gems: played often, priced near bulk